Net zero cost could be cut by more than £400 a year for every British household
The cost of meeting Britain’s net zero targets in 2050 could be nearly £300 billion less than official projections, according to new analysis drawing on the computer model used by Whitehall.
The savings over the period to 2050 – equivalent to £415 for every household every year – would come about from a greater use of home-grown renewable green gas in the energy mix.
Green gas could also save £22 billion in capital and operating costs in just the next six years in meeting the Government’s goal of a clean power system by 2030 – £133 a year for each British household.
The analysis draws on the AI-assisted whole energy system model used by the UK’s Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and the National Energy System Operator (NESO).
Green gas is made from rotting organic matter – food waste collected from homes and supermarkets, farm manures and slurries, industrial waste like whisky mash, rotational energy crops, and wastewater sewage sludge.
The use of green gas – biogas and biomethane – has not been analysed in the official computer modelling studies commissioned by civil servants despite its rapid growth in the United States and mainland Europe.
The analysis conducted by BMA (Business Modelling Applications) using its AI-assisted DecisioTM whole energy planning system was commissioned by the UK’s green gas association, the Anaerobic Digestion and Bioresources Association (ADBA).
The study compared the National Energy System Operator’s (NESO) 2024 Pathways to Net Zero with a projection that allows green gas to replace more costly parts of the transition to net zero.
Green gas saves money by keeping our lights and heaters on when there is little wind and no sun, economising on much bigger investments in intermittent renewables that are otherwise needed to ensure security of supply.
The study projects a £36 billion saving in offshore wind investment (an 18 per cent reduction) and £10.5 billion in onshore wind investment (a 36 per cent reduction). Smaller savings in nuclear power stations, transmission investment, and hydrogen production have also been identified.
The net overall saving from using more green gas in the transition to Net Zero is assessed at £298 billion, or nearly 7.5 per cent.
Like the official forecasts, the study foresees that the economy is likely to be far more electric than today, but it finds cheaper ways of maintaining resilient power with green gas back-up.
Biomethane is a good substitute for fossil gas and is easy to store both in the existing gas grid and in storage facilities like the old Rough gas wells in the North Sea. It can also be converted into hydrogen cheaply with low conversion losses, unlike the process of making hydrogen from electricity.
“Biomethane is the big green battery that can keep us warm and well-lit in dark winters more cheaply than other identified pathways to net zero” said Chris Huhne, the chairman of ADBA. “This study is a wake-up call to look at more cost-effective options for net zero”.
Dr Gareth Mottram, ADBA’s policy lead, said: “This analysis shows the value of biomethane as a turn-on, turn-off energy source that can significantly cut the costs of operating the whole energy system. Biomethane is the perfect complement to intermittent renewables like solar and wind.”
-ENDS-
For further information, contact Jocelyne Bia:
e: Jocelyne.bia@adbioresources.org ; t: +44 (0)20 3176 0592
Notes to editors:
- ADBA represents the green gas sector in the UK, which has nearly 750 plants up and down the country that recycle organic wastes into energy and eco-fertiliser.
- The latest UK household figure from the Office of National Statistics is 28.4 million. The model refers to the island of Great Britain, not the UK. The GB figure for households is estimated to be 800,000 less.
- The typical electricity and gas bill will be £1,738 a year using the price cap set by Ofgem for January to March.
- The £298 billion saving comparing the ADBA and the NESO 2024 Pathway to net zero is a net present value of the future opex and capex costs using a (real) interest rate of 2 per cent as a discount rate.
About ADBA
The Anaerobic Digestion and Bioresources Association (ADBA) is the trade association for the UK anaerobic digestion (AD) and biogas industry. ADBA’s vision is to see the full potential of the UK AD industry realised so it can help the UK achieve its emissions targets and other policy goals, creating a truly circular economy. www.adbioresources.org
About BMA
BMA is a leading UK software and AI-powered Decision-Intelligence company. BMA provides the most advanced ‘whole systems’ and ‘adaptive’ planning capabilities, including composite AI, data management and governance, and breakthrough analytics methodologies, through a single interface. This user experience enables decision-makers across the organisation to define and manage the ‘decisions to be made’, based on their individual roles and requirements. BMA developed the Decisio™ decision intelligence platform to harness AI and other ground-breaking cloud technologies to help asset-intensive organisations make better, faster and more connected decisions to unlock hidden financial potential and reduce risks. www.businessmodelling.com
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